UD Oliveirense 1-2 Uniao De Leiria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 22 Dec 2024

UD Oliveirense
1-2 HT 0-1
Uniao De Leiria
📅22/12/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

UD Oliveirense vs Uniao De Leiria Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.32
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
44%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.74
Over 2.5
44%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.88
No
58%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.72
2-3 Goals
36%
1.71
4-5 Goals
21%
3.84
6+ Goals
8%
17.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.72 — our 35% vs market 29.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
24%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
27%
+1.3pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.3pp
44%
Away Win
47%
-2.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
54%
+2.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
46%
-2.5pp
42%
BTTS Yes
49%
-7.0pp
58%
BTTS No
51%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

UD Oliveirense v Uniao De Leiria — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UD Oliveirense EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Uniao De Leiria EU Bookmakers 51%
-15% / -30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -64% / -64%
1.15/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/0.75
-14% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -16%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
262 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
18.6 Crosses 43.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.0

UD Oliveirense vs Uniao De Leiria Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UD Oliveirense
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Uniao De Leiria
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.89 xG 1.23
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
352 Passes 274
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
08.03.2024 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 1-0 HT 1-0 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
29.10.2023 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 1-4 HT 0-2 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR2

UD Oliveirense 1-2 Uniao De Leiria — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UD Oliveirense
1-2
AWAY Uniao De Leiria
1.46 xG 2.13
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 10
191 Passes 278
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Crosses 20
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH UD Oliveirense vs Uniao De Leiria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Uniao De Leiria edged past UD Oliveirense 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Uniao De Leiria as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, UD Oliveirense had 48% of the ball to Uniao De Leiria's 52%, shots finished 14-15, expected goals 1.46 to 2.13.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Uniao De Leiria led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for UD Oliveirense and 2.50 for Uniao De Leiria.

What was the final score of UD Oliveirense vs Uniao De Leiria?

UD Oliveirense 1-2 Uniao De Leiria in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 22/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UD Oliveirense vs Uniao De Leiria?

Before kick-off our model rated an Uniao De Leiria win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split UD Oliveirense 28%, draw 28%, Uniao De Leiria 44%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Uniao De Leiria) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Uniao De Leiria) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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