Milton Keynes Dons 3-1 AFC Wimbledon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 23 Jan 2024

Milton Keynes Dons
3-1 HT 3-0
AFC Wimbledon
📅23/01/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Milton Keynes Dons vs AFC Wimbledon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.12
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
28%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.9
Over 2.5
53%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.68
No
48%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.34
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
25%
3.44
6+ Goals
12%
13.25
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.44 — our 25% vs market 23.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.06
1/2
6%
33.0
1/X
8%
12.65
X/1
18%
4.91
X/2
10%
6.5
X/X
8%
4.55
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
26.0
2/2
12%
4.56
2/X
9%
12.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.0 — our 10% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
43%
+3.4pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.1pp
28%
Away Win
30%
-1.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
49%
-1.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
51%
+1.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.5pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Milton Keynes Dons v AFC Wimbledon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milton Keynes Dons EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY AFC Wimbledon EU Bookmakers 33%
+6% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +7%
1.84/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.07
+58% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +39%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
367 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 68%
16.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
10.0 Crosses 17.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.9

Milton Keynes Dons vs AFC Wimbledon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milton Keynes Dons
3W-3D-0L
AWAY AFC Wimbledon
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.29 xG 0.79
63% Ball Possession 37%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
446 Passes 212
81% Pass Accuracy 68%
24 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.04.2022 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 1-1 HT 1-0 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN1
11.01.2022 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 1-0 HT 1-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN1
30.01.2021 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 0-2 HT 0-0 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN1
31.10.2020 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 HT 1-1 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN1
07.09.2019 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 2-1 HT 2-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN1
13.08.2019 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 2-2 HT 1-1 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İNLK

Milton Keynes Dons 3-1 AFC Wimbledon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milton Keynes Dons
3-1
AWAY AFC Wimbledon
2.38 xG 1.19
68% Ball Possession 32%
18 Total Shots 8
12 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
603 Passes 221
88% Pass Accuracy 72%
27 Box Touches 19
10 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Milton Keynes Dons vs AFC Wimbledon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milton Keynes Dons got the better of AFC Wimbledon 3-1. Half-time: 3-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Milton Keynes Dons as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Milton Keynes Dons had 68% of the ball to AFC Wimbledon's 32%, shots finished 18-8, expected goals 2.38 to 1.19.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milton Keynes Dons had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Milton Keynes Dons and 0.83 for AFC Wimbledon.

What was the final score of Milton Keynes Dons vs AFC Wimbledon?

Milton Keynes Dons 3-1 AFC Wimbledon in the England - 2nd Division on 23/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milton Keynes Dons vs AFC Wimbledon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Milton Keynes Dons win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Milton Keynes Dons 47%, draw 25%, AFC Wimbledon 28%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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