Penybont 1-1 Aberystwyth Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 23 Feb 2024

📅23/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.42
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
23%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.1
Over 2.5
49%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.07
2-3 Goals
44%
1.85
4-5 Goals
19%
3.08
6+ Goals
11%
9.86
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
23%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
66%
-12.5pp
23%
Draw
20%
+3.3pp
23%
Away Win
14%
+9.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.2pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penybont EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Aberystwyth Town EU Bookmakers 17%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +7%
1.86/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.55
-5% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +18%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
412 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.9 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penybont
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Aberystwyth Town
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
57% Ball Possession 43%
9 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
27.10.2023 Penybont Penybont 0-2 HT 0-2 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town GAL
22.09.2023 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town 1-2 HT 0-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
10.01.2023 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town 0-3 HT 0-2 Penybont Penybont GAL
23.09.2022 Penybont Penybont 3-1 HT 2-1 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town GAL
21.01.2022 Penybont Penybont 4-0 HT 3-0 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town GAL
22.10.2021 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town 0-3 HT 0-2 Penybont Penybont GAL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Penybont
1-1
AWAY Aberystwyth Town
60% Ball Possession 40%
12 Total Shots 6
6 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Penybont vs Aberystwyth Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penybont and Aberystwyth Town shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Penybont at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Penybont had 60% of the ball to Aberystwyth Town's 40%, shots finished 12-6.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Penybont had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Penybont and 0.67 for Aberystwyth Town.

What was the final score of Penybont vs Aberystwyth Town?

Penybont 1-1 Aberystwyth Town in the Wales - Premier League on 23/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penybont vs Aberystwyth Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Penybont win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Penybont 53%, draw 23%, Aberystwyth Town 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Penybont), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Penybont) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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