AC Horsens 1-2 Roskilde — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 23 Feb 2025

📅23/02/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.37
Draw
25%
4.49
Away
16%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.15
Over 2.5
45%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.89
2-3 Goals
45%
1.8
4-5 Goals
18%
2.91
6+ Goals
11%
8.94
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.89 — our 26% vs market 19.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.63
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
18.8
X/1
17%
3.77
X/2
7%
15.2
X/X
12%
6.84
2/1
10%
21.7
2/2
4%
13.0
2/X
8%
21.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
68%
-9.3pp
25%
Draw
19%
+6.1pp
16%
Away Win
13%
+3.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
43%
+12.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
57%
-12.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.6pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AC Horsens EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Roskilde EU Bookmakers 16%
-14% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -18%
1.63/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/1.74
-31% / +75% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / -19%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
359 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 76%
32.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
26.1 Crosses 12.3
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AC Horsens
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Roskilde
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.21 xG 1.67
50% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
328 Passes 174
78% Pass Accuracy 62%
35 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 1
20.08.2024 Roskilde Roskilde 1-2 HT 0-0 AC Horsens AC Horsens DAN1
06.11.2015 Roskilde Roskilde 0-1 HT 0-1 AC Horsens AC Horsens DAN1
16.08.2015 AC Horsens AC Horsens 1-0 HT 1-0 Roskilde Roskilde DAN1
06.06.2015 Roskilde Roskilde 1-2 HT 1-1 AC Horsens AC Horsens DAN1
15.03.2015 AC Horsens AC Horsens 1-2 HT 0-0 Roskilde Roskilde DAN1
17.09.2014 Roskilde Roskilde 0-1 HT 0-1 AC Horsens AC Horsens DAN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AC Horsens
1-2
AWAY Roskilde
1.26 xG 0.78
66% Ball Possession 34%
20 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
452 Passes 199
84% Pass Accuracy 69%
29 Box Touches 10
30 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH AC Horsens vs Roskilde
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roskilde squeezed past AC Horsens 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had AC Horsens at 59% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, AC Horsens had 66% of the ball to Roskilde's 34%, shots finished 20-9, expected goals 1.26 to 0.78 — the balance of chances actually favoured AC Horsens.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AC Horsens had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for AC Horsens and 0.67 for Roskilde.

What was the final score of AC Horsens vs Roskilde?

AC Horsens 1-2 Roskilde in the Denmark 1st Division on 23/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AC Horsens vs Roskilde?

Before kick-off our model rated a AC Horsens win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split AC Horsens 59%, draw 25%, Roskilde 16%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (AC Horsens) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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