FC Fredericia 1-2 HB Koge — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 23 Feb 2025

📅23/02/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.57
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
26%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.23
Over 2.5
50%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.27
2-3 Goals
43%
1.85
4-5 Goals
22%
2.76
6+ Goals
10%
7.74
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.27 — our 25% vs market 17.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.94
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.45
X/1
18%
4.12
X/2
9%
10.65
X/X
11%
6.49
2/1
8%
19.75
2/2
10%
8.04
2/X
6%
17.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
60%
-9.1pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.1pp
26%
Away Win
19%
+7.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.9pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Fredericia EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY HB Koge EU Bookmakers 22%
-5% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -7%
1.66/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.64
+3% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +19%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
270 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 78%
32.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
17.5 Crosses 15.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Fredericia
3W-3D-0L
AWAY HB Koge
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.05 xG 1.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
19 Total Shots 14
9 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
442 Passes 361
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
38 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.09.2024 HB Koge HB Koge 3-4 HT 2-3 FC Fredericia FC Fredericia DAN1
16.03.2024 FC Fredericia FC Fredericia 2-2 HT 0-1 HB Koge HB Koge DAN1
27.08.2023 HB Koge HB Koge 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Fredericia FC Fredericia DAN1
13.05.2023 HB Koge HB Koge 2-2 HT 0-1 FC Fredericia FC Fredericia DAN1
16.04.2023 FC Fredericia FC Fredericia 6-1 HT 2-0 HB Koge HB Koge DAN1
03.03.2023 FC Fredericia FC Fredericia 3-0 HT 2-0 HB Koge HB Koge DAN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Fredericia
1-2
AWAY HB Koge
2.00 xG 0.99
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
507 Passes 330
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
36 Box Touches 7
23 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH FC Fredericia vs HB Koge
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HB Koge nicked a narrow win over FC Fredericia 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was FC Fredericia at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, FC Fredericia had 60% of the ball to HB Koge's 40%, shots finished 14-7, expected goals 2.00 to 0.99 — on chances, FC Fredericia could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Fredericia had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for FC Fredericia and 1.33 for HB Koge.

What was the final score of FC Fredericia vs HB Koge?

FC Fredericia 1-2 HB Koge in the Denmark 1st Division on 23/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Fredericia vs HB Koge?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Fredericia win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split FC Fredericia 50%, draw 23%, HB Koge 26%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (FC Fredericia) ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
DAN1 More Denmark 1st Division
23 Feb 2025
17:00 AC Horsens vs Roskilde Analysis →