HNK Gorica 1-0 Sibenik — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 23 Feb 2025

HNK Gorica
1-0 HT 1-0
Sibenik
📅23/02/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Croatia - 1. HNL – 2024/2025

HNK Gorica vs Sibenik Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.86
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
24%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.67
Over 2.5
49%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.95
No
45%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.59
2-3 Goals
45%
1.71
4-5 Goals
20%
4.04
6+ Goals
7%
19.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
11%
1/X
11%
X/1
23%
X/2
6%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
6%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
50%
-0.8pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.2pp
24%
Away Win
23%
+1.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
56%
-5.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
44%
+5.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
47%
+8.1pp
45%
BTTS No
53%
-8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

HNK Gorica v Sibenik — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Sibenik EU Bookmakers 26%
-6% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +15%
1.10/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.30
+0% / -40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +6%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
287 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 77%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
21.1 Crosses 15.2
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.3

HNK Gorica vs Sibenik Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HNK Gorica
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Sibenik
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.02 xG 1.52
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
243 Passes 321
73% Pass Accuracy 77%
24 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
24.11.2024 Sibenik Sibenik 1-0 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
30.08.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 2-1 HT 1-0 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
14.04.2023 Sibenik Sibenik 0-4 HT 0-4 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
05.02.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 0-3 HT 0-1 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
09.11.2022 Sibenik Sibenik 2-0 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIRK
02.10.2022 Sibenik Sibenik 1-1 HT 0-1 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR

HNK Gorica 1-0 Sibenik — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HNK Gorica
1-0
AWAY Sibenik
0.85 xG 1.02
32% Ball Possession 68%
5 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 9
150 Passes 351
70% Pass Accuracy 83%
13 Box Touches 25
10 Crosses 37
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH HNK Gorica vs Sibenik
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HNK Gorica squeezed past Sibenik 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had HNK Gorica as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, HNK Gorica had 32% of the ball to Sibenik's 68%, shots finished 5-14, expected goals 0.85 to 1.02.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sibenik led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for HNK Gorica and 1.33 for Sibenik.

What was the final score of HNK Gorica vs Sibenik?

HNK Gorica 1-0 Sibenik in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 23/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HNK Gorica vs Sibenik?

Before kick-off our model rated a HNK Gorica win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split HNK Gorica 49%, draw 27%, Sibenik 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (HNK Gorica), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (HNK Gorica) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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