Melita 2-5 Naxxar Lions — Result, Statistics & Match Review — MALTP, 23 Feb 2025

📅23/02/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.09
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
26%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.82
Over 2.5
43%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
44%
+4.1pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.8pp
26%
Away Win
30%
-3.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
51%
+6.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
49%
-6.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.8pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melita EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Naxxar Lions EU Bookmakers 33%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
279 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melita
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Naxxar Lions
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
52% Ball Possession 48%
5 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 3
11.01.2025 Naxxar Lions Naxxar Lions 4-2 HT 0-1 Melita MFAK
25.11.2024 Melita 0-3 HT 0-1 Naxxar Lions Naxxar Lions MLTP
03.10.2024 Naxxar Lions Naxxar Lions 0-0 HT 0-0 Melita MLTP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melita
2-5
AWAY Naxxar Lions
56% Ball Possession 44%
7 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Melita vs Naxxar Lions
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Naxxar Lions cruised past Melita 5-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Melita at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Melita had 56% of the ball to Naxxar Lions's 44%, shots finished 7-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Naxxar Lions led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Melita and 2.33 for Naxxar Lions.

What was the final score of Melita vs Naxxar Lions?

Melita 2-5 Naxxar Lions in the MALTP on 23/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melita vs Naxxar Lions?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melita win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Melita 48%, draw 26%, Naxxar Lions 26%. The final score 2-5 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Melita) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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