Dover Athletic 1-3 Farnborough — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 23 Mar 2024

📅23/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
5.34
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
53%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
2.1
Over 2.5
42%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.82
No
58%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
4.03
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
19%
3.1
6+ Goals
9%
9.99
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.03 — our 31% vs market 19.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
8%
X/2
15%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
31%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
16%
+6.2pp
25%
Draw
20%
+4.7pp
53%
Away Win
64%
-10.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
44%
+14.5pp
42%
Over 2.5
56%
-14.5pp
42%
BTTS Yes
51%
-8.6pp
58%
BTTS No
49%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dover Athletic EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Farnborough EU Bookmakers 69%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -27% / -27%
0.46/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.13
-57% / +49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / -11%
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
219 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 424 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 5.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dover Athletic
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Farnborough
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 0
28.10.2023 Farnborough Farnborough 4-0 HT 2-0 Dover Athletic Dover Athletic İCON
22.04.2023 Farnborough Farnborough 3-0 HT 2-0 Dover Athletic Dover Athletic İCON
22.10.2022 Dover Athletic Dover Athletic 1-1 HT 0-1 Farnborough Farnborough İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dover Athletic
1-3
AWAY Farnborough
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 23
5 Shots on Target 10
4 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Dover Athletic vs Farnborough
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Farnborough got the better of Dover Athletic 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

As we said in the preview, our model had Farnborough as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Dover Athletic had 40% of the ball to Farnborough's 60%, shots finished 8-23.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Farnborough led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Dover Athletic and 2.67 for Farnborough.

What was the final score of Dover Athletic vs Farnborough?

Dover Athletic 1-3 Farnborough in the England - Conference on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dover Athletic vs Farnborough?

Before kick-off our model rated an Farnborough win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Dover Athletic 22%, draw 25%, Farnborough 53%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Farnborough) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Farnborough) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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