Carlisle United 2-2 Stevenage — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 23 Mar 2024

📅23/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.65
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
48%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under
56%
1.71
Over
44%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.05
No Pick
57%
1.69
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2.82
2-3
38%
1.77
4-5
20%
4.13
6+
10%
19.85
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.82 — our 32% vs market 29.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
8.41
1/2
7%
25.5
1/X
6%
17.7
X/1
11%
9.82
X/2
16%
3.62
X/X
13%
4.81
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
25%
2.15
2/X
8%
16.85
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik model signals — not real match figures
HOME Carlisle United The Market 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Stevenage The Market 61%
Bad Season vs Marketall history · vs bookmaker expectation Great
Bad Recent Form vs Marketlatest matches · vs bookmaker expectation Great
0.68 Expected Goals Scoredper match · higher is better 1.55
1.37 Expected Goals Concededper match · lower is better 0.91
Average Attackvs comparable teams Strong
Bad Defensevs comparable teams Strong
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
249 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 67%
15.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.1
18.8 Crosses 16.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Carlisle United
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Stevenage
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.89 xG 1.24
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
183 Passes 234
56% Pass Accuracy 62%
14 Box Touches 27
14 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
09.09.2023 Stevenage Stevenage 2-2 HT 1-1 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN1
18.03.2023 Carlisle United Carlisle United 0-0 HT 0-0 Stevenage Stevenage İN2
20.08.2022 Stevenage Stevenage 2-1 HT 2-1 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
30.04.2022 Carlisle United Carlisle United 2-1 HT 0-0 Stevenage Stevenage İN2
11.12.2021 Stevenage Stevenage 0-2 HT 0-1 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
20.03.2021 Stevenage Stevenage 3-1 HT 1-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Carlisle United
2-2
AWAY Stevenage
1.48 xG 1.63
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 14
195 Passes 332
58% Pass Accuracy 70%
16 Box Touches 32
10 Crosses 45
4 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Carlisle United vs Stevenage
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Carlisle United and Stevenage shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Stevenage at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. For what it's worth, the market was even more convinced — 1.64, about 61% — so the upset beat the price as well as us. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

Under the surface, Stevenage saw more of the ball, 60% to 40%, shots finished 8-16, expected goals 1.48 to 1.63.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.33 a game for Carlisle United against 1.33 for Stevenage.

Carlisle United vs Stevenage Result & Final Score

Carlisle United 2-2 Stevenage in the England - 1st Division on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Carlisle United vs Stevenage Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an Stevenage win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Carlisle United 25%, draw 27%, Stevenage 48%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Stevenage) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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