Northampton Town 1-0 Derby County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 23 Mar 2024

Northampton Town
1-0 HT 1-0
Derby County
📅23/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2023/2024

Northampton Town vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
5.4
Draw
25%
3.8
Away Pick
54%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under
53%
1.8
Over
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.05
No
54%
1.69
Total Goals
0-1 ✓
30%
3.1
2-3
39%
1.78
4-5
22%
3.77
6+
9%
16.15
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.1 — our 30% vs market 26.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
10.4
1/2
8%
25.5
1/X
7%
18.55
X/1
8%
12.15
X/2
21%
3.55
X/X
13%
5.17
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
25%
1.91
2/X
5%
17.45
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Northampton Town v Derby County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik model signals — not real match figures
HOME Northampton Town The Market 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Derby County The Market 66%
Average Season vs Marketall history · vs bookmaker expectation Weak
Average Recent Form vs Marketlatest matches · vs bookmaker expectation Weak
0.71 Expected Goals Scoredper match · higher is better 1.47
1.38 Expected Goals Concededper match · lower is better 0.88
Weak Attackvs comparable teams Bad
Great Defensevs comparable teams Strong
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
223 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 377 · 78%
14.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.5
16.3 Crosses 24.1
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.7

Northampton Town vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Northampton Town
1W-1D-3L
AWAY Derby County
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.80
0.80 xG 1.56
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 8
214 Passes 422
65% Pass Accuracy 76%
15 Box Touches 26
15 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
31.10.2023 Derby County Derby County 4-0 HT 3-0 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1
04.02.2020 Derby County Derby County 4-2 HT 2-0 Northampton Town Northampton Town FAK
24.01.2020 Northampton Town Northampton Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County FAK
25.07.2017 Northampton Town Northampton Town 1-0 HT 1-0 Derby County Derby County HAZ
18.07.2015 Northampton Town Northampton Town 0-1 HT 0-1 Derby County Derby County HAZ

Northampton Town 1-0 Derby County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Northampton Town
1-0
AWAY Derby County
0.67 xG 1.71
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
163 Passes 344
54% Pass Accuracy 73%
9 Box Touches 29
7 Crosses 31
2 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Northampton Town vs Derby County
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Northampton Town edged past Derby County 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Derby County at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. Small consolation: at 1.52 (roughly 66%) the price was further off than we were.

The goals picture was genuinely open: 47% for over 2.5, 46% on both teams scoring.

By the numbers, Derby County saw more of the ball, 62% to 38%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 0.67 to 1.71 — on chances, Derby County could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Derby County led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 0.60 a game for Northampton Town against 1.80 for Derby County.

Northampton Town vs Derby County Result & Final Score

Northampton Town 1-0 Derby County in the England - 1st Division on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Northampton Town vs Derby County Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an Derby County win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Northampton Town 21%, draw 25%, Derby County 54%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Derby County) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Derby County) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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