Caernarfon Town 1-2 Cardiff MU — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 23 Mar 2024

📅23/03/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.82
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
27%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.07
Over 2.5
55%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.63
No
48%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.99
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
3.11
6+ Goals
13%
10.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
11%
2/2
12%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
50%
-0.8pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.2pp
27%
Away Win
25%
+2.0pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.8pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.6pp
48%
BTTS No
43%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Cardiff MU EU Bookmakers 29%
-4% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -1%
1.43/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.54
-8% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -1%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
404 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caernarfon Town
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Cardiff MU
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
10.02.2024 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 2-2 HT 1-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
13.01.2024 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 2-2 HT 0-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
21.10.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 5-1 HT 2-0 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
29.10.2022 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 0-3 HT 0-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
27.08.2022 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 5-1 HT 3-1 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
06.11.2021 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 0-1 HT 0-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
POST-MATCH Caernarfon Town vs Cardiff MU
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cardiff MU squeezed past Caernarfon Town 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Caernarfon Town at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Caernarfon Town had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Caernarfon Town and 1.00 for Cardiff MU.

What was the final score of Caernarfon Town vs Cardiff MU?

Caernarfon Town 1-2 Cardiff MU in the Wales - Premier League on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caernarfon Town vs Cardiff MU?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caernarfon Town win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Caernarfon Town 50%, draw 23%, Cardiff MU 27%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Caernarfon Town) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Caernarfon Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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