La Equidad 1-2 Independiente Medellin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 23 Mar 2024

📅23/03/2024 · 🕒04:20 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.92
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
24%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.6
Over 2.5
40%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.03
No
59%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
48%
-0.3pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.9pp
25%
Away Win
25%
-0.6pp
60%
Under 2.5
59%
+1.1pp
40%
Over 2.5
41%
-1.1pp
41%
BTTS Yes
45%
-3.8pp
59%
BTTS No
55%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME La Equidad EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -9%
1.50/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.24
-12% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -13%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
311 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 76%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.6
18.0 Crosses 11.9
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME La Equidad
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Independiente Medellin
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.06 xG 1.39
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
218 Passes 316
71% Pass Accuracy 80%
12 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
16.07.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-2 HT 1-1 La Equidad La Equidad KOL
16.02.2023 La Equidad La Equidad 2-1 HT 2-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
06.08.2022 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-1 HT 1-0 La Equidad La Equidad KOL
17.06.2022 La Equidad La Equidad 1-5 HT 0-3 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
13.02.2022 La Equidad La Equidad 2-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
09.08.2021 La Equidad La Equidad 0-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME La Equidad
1-2
AWAY Independiente Medellin
1.42 xG 2.13
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 5
11 Corners 1
308 Passes 223
78% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 16
26 Crosses 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH La Equidad vs Independiente Medellin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Medellin squeezed past La Equidad 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was La Equidad at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, La Equidad had 58% of the ball to Independiente Medellin's 42%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 1.42 to 2.13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, La Equidad had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for La Equidad and 1.50 for Independiente Medellin.

What was the final score of La Equidad vs Independiente Medellin?

La Equidad 1-2 Independiente Medellin in the Colombia - Primera on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for La Equidad vs Independiente Medellin?

Before kick-off our model rated a La Equidad win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split La Equidad 48%, draw 28%, Independiente Medellin 25%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (La Equidad) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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