Minija 0-1 BFA — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 23 Mar 2024

Minija
0-1 HT 0-0
BFA
📅23/03/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✓
Lithuania - 1st Division – 2024

Minija vs BFA Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
35%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.78
Over 2.5
40%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.76
No
55%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
12%
X/X
16%
2/1
4%
2/2
19%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-3.9pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.6pp
35%
Away Win
31%
+4.5pp
60%
Under 2.5
52%
+7.6pp
40%
Over 2.5
48%
-7.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.1pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Minija v BFA — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Minija EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY BFA EU Bookmakers 34%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
1.24/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/2.15
-21% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -30%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
298 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.8

Minija vs BFA Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Minija
2W-1D-1L
AWAY BFA
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
28.10.2023 BFA BFA 2-0 HT 1-0 Minija Minija LIT1
10.06.2023 Minija Minija 1-1 HT 0-1 BFA BFA LIT1
30.09.2022 BFA BFA 2-3 HT 0-2 Minija Minija LIT1
10.08.2022 Minija Minija 3-1 HT 1-1 BFA BFA LIT1
POST-MATCH Minija vs BFA
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BFA squeezed past Minija 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 35%) promised a tight game; BFA found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Minija had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Minija and 1.50 for BFA.

What was the final score of Minija vs BFA?

Minija 0-1 BFA in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Minija vs BFA?

Before kick-off our model rated a Minija win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Minija 38%, draw 27%, BFA 35%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Minija) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Minija) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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