Hartford Athletic 1-0 Birmingham Legion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 23 Mar 2024

Hartford Athletic
1-0 HT 1-0
Birmingham Legion
📅23/03/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
USL Championship – 2024

Hartford Athletic vs Birmingham Legion Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.33
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
39%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.18
Over 2.5
59%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.53
No
43%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.33
2-3 Goals
39%
1.88
4-5 Goals
24%
2.97
6+ Goals
14%
8.96
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
10%
1/X
5%
X/1
10%
X/2
15%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
39%
-1.7pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.5pp
39%
Away Win
36%
+3.1pp
41%
Under 2.5
42%
-0.7pp
59%
Over 2.5
58%
+0.7pp
57%
BTTS Yes
61%
-4.1pp
43%
BTTS No
39%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hartford Athletic v Birmingham Legion — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hartford Athletic EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Birmingham Legion EU Bookmakers 39%
+1% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / -3%
1.80/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.33
+24% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
356 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 79%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.6
17.2 Crosses 15.1
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.4

Hartford Athletic vs Birmingham Legion Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hartford Athletic
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Birmingham Legion
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.84 xG 1.54
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
328 Passes 330
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 28
16 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.05.2023 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 3-2 HT 0-1 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic USLP
25.03.2023 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic 0-1 HT 0-1 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
31.07.2022 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic 0-1 HT 0-0 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
11.04.2022 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 2-1 HT 1-1 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic USLP
10.10.2019 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic 4-0 HT 0-0 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
23.06.2019 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 2-2 HT 1-2 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic USLP

Hartford Athletic 1-0 Birmingham Legion — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hartford Athletic
1-0
AWAY Birmingham Legion
4.07 xG 1.31
48% Ball Possession 52%
27 Total Shots 18
11 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 5
298 Passes 328
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
46 Box Touches 30
21 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Hartford Athletic vs Birmingham Legion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hartford Athletic squeezed past Birmingham Legion 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 24% / 39% — and on the day Hartford Athletic made the difference. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hartford Athletic had 48% of the ball to Birmingham Legion's 52%, shots finished 27-18, expected goals 4.07 to 1.31 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Hartford Athletic's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Birmingham Legion led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Hartford Athletic and 1.50 for Birmingham Legion.

What was the final score of Hartford Athletic vs Birmingham Legion?

Hartford Athletic 1-0 Birmingham Legion in the USL Championship on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hartford Athletic vs Birmingham Legion?

Before kick-off our model rated an Birmingham Legion win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Hartford Athletic 37%, draw 24%, Birmingham Legion 39%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Birmingham Legion) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
USLP More USL Championship
23 Mar 2024
23:00 Louisville City vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds Analysis →
23:00 Detroit City vs Loudoun United Analysis →