Louisville City 3-1 Pittsburgh Riverhounds — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 23 Mar 2024

📅23/03/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.05
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
31%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.75
Over 2.5
43%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.81
No
57%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.99
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
3.9
6+ Goals
10%
17.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.99 — our 33% vs market 27.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
45%
-2.0pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.1pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+3.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
53%
+4.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
47%
-4.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
51%
-8.0pp
57%
BTTS No
49%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Louisville City EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Pittsburgh Riverhounds EU Bookmakers 32%
-4% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -12%
1.22/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.24
-7% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +17%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
355 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 73%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
21.6 Crosses 17.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Louisville City
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.06 xG 1.14
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
383 Passes 271
75% Pass Accuracy 69%
20 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
13.07.2023 Louisville City Louisville City 0-1 HT 0-0 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pittsburgh Riverhounds USLP
02.07.2023 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pittsburgh Riverhounds 0-0 HT 0-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
30.10.2022 Louisville City Louisville City 2-2 HT 0-1 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pittsburgh Riverhounds USLP
11.09.2022 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pittsburgh Riverhounds 0-0 HT 0-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
01.05.2022 Louisville City Louisville City 2-0 HT 2-0 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pittsburgh Riverhounds USLP
11.10.2020 Louisville City Louisville City 2-0 HT 1-0 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pittsburgh Riverhounds USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Louisville City
3-1
AWAY Pittsburgh Riverhounds
49% Ball Possession 51%
17 Total Shots 4
3 Corners 0
POST-MATCH Louisville City vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Louisville City saw off Pittsburgh Riverhounds 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Louisville City as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Louisville City had 49% of the ball to Pittsburgh Riverhounds's 51%, shots finished 17-4.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Louisville City had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Louisville City and 0.50 for Pittsburgh Riverhounds.

What was the final score of Louisville City vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds?

Louisville City 3-1 Pittsburgh Riverhounds in the USL Championship on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Louisville City vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds?

Before kick-off our model rated a Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Louisville City 43%, draw 26%, Pittsburgh Riverhounds 31%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Louisville City) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Louisville City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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