Cancun FC 1-1 Celaya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 23 Mar 2025

📅23/03/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.27
Draw
35%
3.28
Away
25%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.8
Over 2.5
37%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 63%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
40%
+0.1pp
35%
Draw
27%
+7.4pp
25%
Away Win
32%
-7.5pp
63%
Under 2.5
52%
+11.4pp
37%
Over 2.5
48%
-11.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.0pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cancun FC EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Celaya EU Bookmakers 36%
+4% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +1%
1.50/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.19
+9% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +9%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
306 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cancun FC
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Celaya
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
06.10.2024 Celaya Celaya 3-1 HT 2-0 Cancun FC Cancun FC MEK2
14.02.2024 Cancun FC Cancun FC 1-1 HT 1-1 Celaya Celaya MEK2
28.09.2023 Celaya Celaya 1-0 HT 1-0 Cancun FC Cancun FC MEK2
05.01.2023 Celaya Celaya 2-0 HT 0-0 Cancun FC Cancun FC MEK2
14.09.2022 Cancun FC Cancun FC 0-4 HT 0-2 Celaya Celaya MEK2
12.01.2022 Cancun FC Cancun FC 2-0 HT 2-0 Celaya Celaya MEK2
POST-MATCH Cancun FC vs Celaya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cancun FC and Celaya shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Cancun FC at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (63%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Celaya led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Cancun FC and 1.83 for Celaya.

What was the final score of Cancun FC vs Celaya?

Cancun FC 1-1 Celaya in the Mexico - Primera A on 23/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cancun FC vs Celaya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cancun FC win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Cancun FC 41%, draw 35%, Celaya 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Cancun FC) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cancun FC) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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