Parma 1-0 Juventus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 23 Apr 2025

📅23/04/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
4.04
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
40%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
54%
1.86
Over
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1
30%
3.21
2-3
38%
1.79
4-5
22%
3.53
6+
10%
14.0
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.21 — our 30% vs market 25.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
7.73
1/2
9%
24.2
1/X
10%
15.9
X/1
13%
9.55
X/2
11%
4.28
X/X
14%
4.99
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
20%
2.25
2/X
6%
14.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
22%
+9.4pp
29%
Draw
25%
+3.9pp
40%
Away Win
54%
-13.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+3.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-3.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.6pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Parma EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Juventus EU Bookmakers 57%
+15% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +11%
1.28/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/1.09
+38% / +55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +0%
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
258 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 382 · 81%
16.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.2
12.5 Crosses 17.9
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Parma
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Juventus
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.85 xG 1.90
37% Ball Possession 63%
10 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 9
292 Passes 555
82% Pass Accuracy 90%
16 Box Touches 35
16 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 2
30.10.2024 Juventus Juventus 2-2 HT 1-2 Parma Parma İTA
21.04.2021 Juventus Juventus 3-1 HT 1-1 Parma Parma İTA
19.12.2020 Parma Parma 0-4 HT 0-2 Juventus Juventus İTA
19.01.2020 Juventus Juventus 2-1 HT 1-0 Parma Parma İTA
24.08.2019 Parma Parma 0-1 HT 0-1 Juventus Juventus İTA
02.02.2019 Juventus Juventus 3-3 HT 1-0 Parma Parma İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Parma
1-0
AWAY Juventus
0.60 xG 0.77
34% Ball Possession 66%
6 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 9
212 Passes 453
77% Pass Accuracy 87%
8 Box Touches 40
12 Crosses 37
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Parma vs Juventus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Parma nicked a narrow win over Juventus 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 31% / 29% / 40% — and on the day Parma made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Parma had 34% of the ball to Juventus's 66%, shots finished 6-16, expected goals 0.60 to 0.77.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Juventus led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Parma and 2.50 for Juventus.

What was the final score of Parma vs Juventus?

Parma 1-0 Juventus in the Italy - Serie A on 23/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Parma vs Juventus?

Before kick-off our model rated an Juventus win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Parma 31%, draw 29%, Juventus 40%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Juventus) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Juventus) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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