Cagliari vs Fiorentina Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Cagliari v Fiorentina — Team-Based Signals
Cagliari vs Fiorentina Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-0
HT 2-0
Cagliari
İTA
1-1
HT 0-0
Fiorentina
İTA
3-0
HT 2-0
Cagliari
İTA
0-0
HT 0-0
Fiorentina
İTA
Cagliari 1-2 Fiorentina — Actual Match Statistics
Fiorentina nicked a narrow win over Cagliari 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 29% / 35% — and on the day Fiorentina made the difference.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Cagliari had 48% of the ball to Fiorentina's 52%, shots finished 8-8, expected goals 0.27 to 0.74.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fiorentina led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Cagliari and 1.83 for Fiorentina.
What was the final score of Cagliari vs Fiorentina?
Cagliari 1-2 Fiorentina in the Italy - Serie A on 23/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Cagliari vs Fiorentina?
Before kick-off our model rated a Cagliari win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Cagliari 37%, draw 29%, Fiorentina 35%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.