Groningen 4-1 Heracles — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 23 Apr 2025

Groningen
4-1 HT 2-1
Heracles
📅23/04/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

Groningen vs Heracles Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.96
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
23%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
57%
1.67
Over
43%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.9
No
56%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
33%
2.65
2-3
36%
1.76
4-5
17%
4.25
6+
14%
21.3
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.65 — our 33% vs market 31.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.79
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.4
X/1
10%
4.61
X/2
9%
7.8
X/X
11%
4.12
2/1
10%
28.0
2/2
8%
6.3
2/X
11%
14.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 57% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
47%
+1.9pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.3pp
23%
Away Win
24%
-1.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.7pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.7pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.5pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Groningen v Heracles — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Groningen EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Heracles EU Bookmakers 28%
-2% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -2%
1.23/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.64
-34% / +57% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +2%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
355 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 72%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
21.4 Crosses 18.1
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.5

Groningen vs Heracles Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Groningen
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Heracles
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.91 xG 1.30
55% Ball Possession 45%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 6
383 Passes 276
80% Pass Accuracy 72%
18 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
21.12.2024 Heracles Heracles 1-1 Groningen Groningen HOL
02.08.2024 Groningen Groningen 2-0 HT 1-0 Heracles Heracles HAZ
24.04.2022 Groningen Groningen 0-1 HT 0-1 Heracles Heracles HOL
18.12.2021 Heracles Heracles 4-2 HT 2-1 Groningen Groningen HOL
30.01.2021 Heracles Heracles 1-0 HT 1-0 Groningen Groningen HOL
23.12.2020 Groningen Groningen 0-1 HT 0-0 Heracles Heracles HOL

Groningen 4-1 Heracles — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Groningen
4-1
AWAY Heracles
1.93 xG 0.38
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
250 Passes 355
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 14
13 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Groningen vs Heracles
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Groningen cruised past Heracles 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Groningen as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Groningen had 43% of the ball to Heracles's 57%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 1.93 to 0.38.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Heracles led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Groningen and 1.33 for Heracles.

What was the final score of Groningen vs Heracles?

Groningen 4-1 Heracles in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 23/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Groningen vs Heracles?

Before kick-off our model rated a Groningen win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Groningen 49%, draw 28%, Heracles 23%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Groningen) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Groningen) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →