Utrecht 3-1 Sparta Rotterdam — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 23 May 2024

📅23/05/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.72
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
30%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.1
Over 2.5
55%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.68
No
47%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.01
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals
27%
3.1
6+ Goals
12%
10.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.21
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.5
X/1
16%
4.1
X/2
13%
9.09
X/X
10%
5.57
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
21.85
2/2
13%
6.63
2/X
6%
15.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.85 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
54%
-8.4pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.2pp
30%
Away Win
22%
+8.7pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.7pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Utrecht EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam EU Bookmakers 25%
-3% / -30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +29%
1.77/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.47
-15% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +36%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
340 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 74%
28.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
25.4 Crosses 15.9
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Utrecht
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.60 xG 1.53
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
363 Passes 356
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
27 Box Touches 28
24 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 1
12.05.2024 Utrecht Utrecht 0-1 HT 0-0 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
26.11.2023 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 1-2 HT 1-1 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
04.06.2023 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 0-1 HT 0-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
01.06.2023 Utrecht Utrecht 1-2 HT 0-2 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
24.02.2023 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 0-3 HT 0-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
23.10.2022 Utrecht Utrecht 3-1 HT 1-0 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Utrecht
3-1
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam
2.49 xG 0.90
49% Ball Possession 51%
19 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 7
339 Passes 359
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
39 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Utrecht got the better of Sparta Rotterdam 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Utrecht as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Utrecht had 49% of the ball to Sparta Rotterdam's 51%, shots finished 19-17, expected goals 2.49 to 0.90.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Utrecht had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Utrecht and 0.83 for Sparta Rotterdam.

What was the final score of Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam?

Utrecht 3-1 Sparta Rotterdam in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 23/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam?

Before kick-off our model rated a Utrecht win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Utrecht 46%, draw 24%, Sparta Rotterdam 30%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Utrecht), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Utrecht) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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