NEC Nijmegen 1-2 Go Ahead Eagles — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 23 May 2024

📅23/05/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.82
Draw
19%
3.64
Away
32%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.07
Over 2.5
53%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.66
No
48%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.94
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
3.14
6+ Goals
11%
10.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.46
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.8
X/1
16%
4.35
X/2
10%
7.94
X/X
8%
5.34
2/1
9%
22.3
2/2
14%
5.66
2/X
5%
14.25
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 9% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
51%
-1.6pp
19%
Draw
24%
-5.1pp
32%
Away Win
25%
+6.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.7pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Go Ahead Eagles EU Bookmakers 29%
+2% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +5%
1.90/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.49
+25% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +36%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
326 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 76%
29.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
22.0 Crosses 15.9
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NEC Nijmegen
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Go Ahead Eagles
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.60 xG 1.14
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
401 Passes 303
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
26 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.01.2024 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles 2-2 HT 0-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
17.01.2024 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 2-1 HT 1-0 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles HOK
26.11.2023 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-1 HT 0-0 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles HOL
05.02.2023 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles 1-0 HT 1-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
23.10.2022 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 3-3 HT 1-2 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles HOL
08.05.2022 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-0 HT 0-0 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NEC Nijmegen
1-2
AWAY Go Ahead Eagles
1.37 xG 2.64
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 25
2 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 10
352 Passes 398
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
23 Box Touches 33
19 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH NEC Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Go Ahead Eagles edged past NEC Nijmegen 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was NEC Nijmegen at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, NEC Nijmegen had 47% of the ball to Go Ahead Eagles's 53%, shots finished 14-25, expected goals 1.37 to 2.64 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Go Ahead Eagles's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, NEC Nijmegen had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.33 for Go Ahead Eagles.

What was the final score of NEC Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles?

NEC Nijmegen 1-2 Go Ahead Eagles in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 23/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NEC Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles?

Before kick-off our model rated a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split NEC Nijmegen 49%, draw 19%, Go Ahead Eagles 32%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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