Go Ahead Eagles 2-2 NEC Nijmegen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 28 Jan 2024

Go Ahead Eagles
2-2 HT 0-1
NEC Nijmegen
📅28/01/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

Go Ahead Eagles vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.09
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
32%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.07
Over 2.5
56%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.6
No
41%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
4.0
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
28%
3.09
6+ Goals
13%
9.97
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.09 — our 28% vs market 26.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.89
1/2
5%
30.5
1/X
9%
12.8
X/1
11%
4.88
X/2
11%
6.7
X/X
9%
5.1
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
23.45
2/2
16%
4.49
2/X
8%
13.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.45 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-1.9pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.2pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+1.7pp
44%
Under 2.5
44%
-0.4pp
56%
Over 2.5
56%
+0.4pp
59%
BTTS Yes
58%
+0.6pp
41%
BTTS No
42%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Go Ahead Eagles v NEC Nijmegen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Go Ahead Eagles EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 34%
+14% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
1.86/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.47
+35% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +72%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
354 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 77%
30.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.6
21.0 Crosses 14.5
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.7

Go Ahead Eagles vs NEC Nijmegen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Go Ahead Eagles
2W-2D-2L
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.21 xG 1.42
44% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
300 Passes 401
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 26
20 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.01.2024 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 2-1 HT 1-0 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles HOK
26.11.2023 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-1 HT 0-0 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles HOL
05.02.2023 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles 1-0 HT 1-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
23.10.2022 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 3-3 HT 1-2 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles HOL
08.05.2022 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-0 HT 0-0 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles HOL
10.02.2022 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0-2 HT 0-2 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles HOK

Go Ahead Eagles 2-2 NEC Nijmegen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Go Ahead Eagles
2-2
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
2.02 xG 2.94
47% Ball Possession 53%
17 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 5
276 Passes 349
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
32 Box Touches 28
26 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Go Ahead Eagles vs NEC Nijmegen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Go Ahead Eagles and NEC Nijmegen shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Go Ahead Eagles at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, Go Ahead Eagles had 47% of the ball to NEC Nijmegen's 53%, shots finished 17-16, expected goals 2.02 to 2.94.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Go Ahead Eagles and 1.17 for NEC Nijmegen.

What was the final score of Go Ahead Eagles vs NEC Nijmegen?

Go Ahead Eagles 2-2 NEC Nijmegen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Go Ahead Eagles vs NEC Nijmegen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Go Ahead Eagles win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Go Ahead Eagles 42%, draw 26%, NEC Nijmegen 32%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Go Ahead Eagles) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Go Ahead Eagles) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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