Heerenveen 2-2 AZ Alkmaar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 28 Jan 2024

📅28/01/2024 · 🕒14:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.99
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
38%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.97
Over 2.5
50%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.66
No
46%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.61
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.3
6+ Goals
11%
11.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.79
1/2
6%
24.3
1/X
8%
13.45
X/1
12%
6.8
X/2
11%
4.67
X/X
12%
4.89
2/1
6%
33.0
2/2
21%
2.84
2/X
9%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
30%
+4.2pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.2pp
38%
Away Win
45%
-7.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
47%
+3.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
53%
-3.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.1pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heerenveen EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 49%
-2% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -1%
1.38/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.67/1.36
-4% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +5%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
302 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 75%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.6
17.0 Crosses 15.8
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heerenveen
1W-1D-4L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.11 xG 1.97
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
318 Passes 476
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
18 Box Touches 31
15 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
21.10.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 3-0 HT 1-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
01.04.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-1 HT 0-1 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
14.01.2023 Heerenveen Heerenveen 0-2 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
22.05.2022 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-0 HT 1-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
19.05.2022 Heerenveen Heerenveen 3-2 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
23.04.2022 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-1 HT 1-1 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heerenveen
2-2
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
346 Passes 354
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
POST-MATCH Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heerenveen and AZ Alkmaar shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 28% / 38% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Heerenveen had 51% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar's 49%, shots finished 16-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Heerenveen and 2.00 for AZ Alkmaar.

What was the final score of Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?

Heerenveen 2-2 AZ Alkmaar in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?

Before kick-off our model rated an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Heerenveen 34%, draw 28%, AZ Alkmaar 38%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) ✓ BTTS Yes
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