Amazonas 2-1 Vila Nova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 23 Jun 2025

📅23/06/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.8
Draw
34%
2.83
Away
27%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.41
Over 2.5
34%
2.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.27
No
59%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
10%
X/X
19%
2/1
10%
2/2
13%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
33%
+6.0pp
34%
Draw
32%
+2.0pp
27%
Away Win
35%
-8.1pp
66%
Under 2.5
67%
-1.7pp
34%
Over 2.5
33%
+1.7pp
41%
BTTS Yes
40%
+1.3pp
59%
BTTS No
60%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Amazonas EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 38%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -8%
1.08/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.21
-11% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -10%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
299 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 76%
17.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
19.4 Crosses 17.4
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Amazonas
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Vila Nova
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.90 xG 1.10
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 7
298 Passes 258
76% Pass Accuracy 74%
18 Box Touches 22
27 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 2
23.10.2024 Vila Nova Vila Nova 1-0 HT 0-0 Amazonas Amazonas BR2
09.07.2024 Amazonas Amazonas 1-2 HT 1-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Amazonas
2-1
AWAY Vila Nova
1.04 xG 1.59
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 6
265 Passes 254
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Box Touches 18
23 Crosses 20
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Amazonas vs Vila Nova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Amazonas nicked a narrow win over Vila Nova 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 34% / 27%) promised a tight game; Amazonas found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Amazonas had 53% of the ball to Vila Nova's 47%, shots finished 9-13, expected goals 1.04 to 1.59 — on chances, Vila Nova could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Vila Nova led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Amazonas and 1.50 for Vila Nova.

What was the final score of Amazonas vs Vila Nova?

Amazonas 2-1 Vila Nova in the Brazil - Serie B on 23/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Amazonas vs Vila Nova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Amazonas win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Amazonas 39%, draw 34%, Vila Nova 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Amazonas) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Amazonas) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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