Vila Nova 1-0 Amazonas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 23 Oct 2024

📅23/10/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.92
Draw
31%
3.18
Away
27%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.56
Over 2.5
36%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.09
No
60%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.38
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
16%
5.04
6+ Goals
8%
30.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
48%
-6.3pp
31%
Draw
28%
+2.8pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+3.5pp
64%
Under 2.5
60%
+4.0pp
36%
Over 2.5
40%
-4.0pp
40%
BTTS Yes
44%
-4.1pp
60%
BTTS No
56%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Amazonas EU Bookmakers 28%
-3% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.16/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.57/1.24
-24% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -57% / +2%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
327 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 77%
17.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.1
20.3 Crosses 13.7
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vila Nova
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Amazonas
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.46 xG 0.88
40% Ball Possession 60%
14 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 16
231 Passes 373
73% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 45
0 Yellow Cards 4
09.07.2024 Amazonas Amazonas 1-2 HT 1-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vila Nova
1-0
AWAY Amazonas
0.75 xG 0.92
55% Ball Possession 45%
22 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 3
286 Passes 223
74% Pass Accuracy 69%
23 Box Touches 14
25 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Vila Nova vs Amazonas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vila Nova nicked a narrow win over Amazonas 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Vila Nova as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Vila Nova had 55% of the ball to Amazonas's 45%, shots finished 22-17, expected goals 0.75 to 0.92.

What was the final score of Vila Nova vs Amazonas?

Vila Nova 1-0 Amazonas in the Brazil - Serie B on 23/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vila Nova vs Amazonas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vila Nova win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Vila Nova 42%, draw 31%, Amazonas 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vila Nova), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vila Nova) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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