Santos 1-0 Ceara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 23 Oct 2024

Santos
1-0 HT 1-0
Ceara
📅23/10/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.76
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
28%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.68
Over 2.5
46%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.96
No
57%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
2.77
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.21
6+ Goals
8%
20.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.77 — our 33% vs market 30.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
53%
-4.8pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.1pp
28%
Away Win
21%
+7.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.3pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.6pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santos EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Ceara EU Bookmakers 24%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -5%
1.41/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/0.98
+43% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / -11%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
360 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 76%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
23.0 Crosses 17.7
1.7 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Santos
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Ceara
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.11 xG 0.98
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
336 Passes 286
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 15
23 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
06.07.2024 Ceara Ceara 0-1 HT 0-1 Santos Santos BR2
10.09.2022 Ceara Ceara 2-1 HT 2-0 Santos Santos BR1
22.05.2022 Santos Santos 0-0 HT 0-0 Ceara Ceara BR1
19.09.2021 Ceara Ceara 0-0 HT 0-0 Santos Santos BR1
06.06.2021 Santos Santos 3-1 HT 1-1 Ceara Ceara BR1
28.12.2020 Santos Santos 1-1 HT 1-1 Ceara Ceara BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Santos
1-0
AWAY Ceara
0.54 xG 0.49
39% Ball Possession 61%
7 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
207 Passes 386
68% Pass Accuracy 81%
13 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Santos vs Ceara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santos nicked a narrow win over Ceara 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Santos as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Santos had 39% of the ball to Ceara's 61%, shots finished 7-13, expected goals 0.54 to 0.49.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Santos had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Santos and 0.67 for Ceara.

What was the final score of Santos vs Ceara?

Santos 1-0 Ceara in the Brazil - Serie B on 23/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santos vs Ceara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Santos win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Santos 48%, draw 24%, Ceara 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Santos), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Santos) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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