Ferencvaros 5-0 The New Saints — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 23 Jul 2024

📅23/07/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
62%
1.18
Draw
21%
5.71
Away
17%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under
43%
2.61
Over
57%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.16
No
51%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1
22%
5.92
2-3
34%
2.06
4-5
31%
2.58
6+
13%
5.86
Value flag · 0-1 at 5.92 — our 22% vs market 12.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
15%
X/2
4%
X/X
11%
2/1
11%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Ferencvaros win — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
62%
Home Win
80%
-17.5pp
21%
Draw
14%
+6.6pp
17%
Away Win
6%
+10.9pp
43%
Under 2.5
35%
+8.7pp
57%
Over 2.5
65%
-8.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
42%
+7.1pp
51%
BTTS No
58%
-7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ferencvaros The Market 85%
Head to Head
AWAY The New Saints The Market 9%
-28% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
2.02/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/2.43
-23% / -49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +2%
66% Ball Possession 34%
20 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
518 · 88% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 231 · 74%
31.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
48.0 Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ferencvaros
5-0
AWAY The New Saints
1.81 xG 1.11
63% Ball Possession 37%
13 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 1
502 Passes 270
89% Pass Accuracy 83%
37 Box Touches 10
17 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ferencvaros vs The New Saints
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ferencvaros cruised past The New Saints 5-0. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Ferencvaros as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Ferencvaros had 63% of the ball to The New Saints's 37%, shots finished 13-5, expected goals 1.81 to 1.11.

What was the final score of Ferencvaros vs The New Saints?

Ferencvaros 5-0 The New Saints in the Champions League on 23/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ferencvaros vs The New Saints?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ferencvaros win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Ferencvaros 62%, draw 21%, The New Saints 17%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ferencvaros), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ferencvaros) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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