Lincoln Red Imps 0-2 Karabağ — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 23 Jul 2024

📅23/07/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
7.95
Draw
20%
5.15
Away
61%
1.26
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.38
Over 2.5
50%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.99
No
59%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
4.97
2-3 Goals
36%
1.95
4-5 Goals
21%
2.77
6+ Goals
12%
7.31
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.97 — our 31% vs market 15.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
7%
X/2
24%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
30%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
10%
+9.2pp
20%
Draw
16%
+3.9pp
61%
Away Win
74%
-12.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
38%
+12.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
62%
-12.4pp
41%
BTTS Yes
46%
-5.4pp
59%
BTTS No
54%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lincoln Red Imps EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY Karabağ EU Bookmakers 79%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
0.96/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.63/0.83
+21% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / -1%
37% Ball Possession 63%
7 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
305 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 554 · 86%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 0.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lincoln Red Imps
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Karabağ
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
29% Ball Possession 71%
2 Total Shots 11
1 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 0
19.07.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 4-0 HT 2-0 Lincoln Red Imps Lincoln Red Imps ŞMP
11.07.2023 Lincoln Red Imps Lincoln Red Imps 1-2 HT 1-0 Karabağ Karabağ ŞMP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lincoln Red Imps
0-2
AWAY Karabağ
34% Ball Possession 66%
3 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Lincoln Red Imps vs Karabağ
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ got the better of Lincoln Red Imps 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Karabağ as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Lincoln Red Imps had 34% of the ball to Karabağ's 66%, shots finished 3-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Karabağ led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Lincoln Red Imps and 3.00 for Karabağ.

What was the final score of Lincoln Red Imps vs Karabağ?

Lincoln Red Imps 0-2 Karabağ in the Champions League on 23/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lincoln Red Imps vs Karabağ?

Before kick-off our model rated an Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Lincoln Red Imps 19%, draw 20%, Karabağ 61%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karabağ), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Karabağ) ✓ BTTS No
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