Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Ferroviaria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 23 Jul 2025

📅23/07/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.57
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
21%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.52
Over 2.5
41%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.44
No
58%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.22
2-3 Goals
43%
1.76
4-5 Goals
17%
5.07
6+ Goals
7%
31.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
21%
X/2
7%
X/X
17%
2/1
10%
2/2
7%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
60%
-8.7pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.4pp
21%
Away Win
15%
+6.2pp
59%
Under 2.5
62%
-3.4pp
41%
Over 2.5
38%
+3.4pp
42%
BTTS Yes
37%
+5.5pp
58%
BTTS No
63%
-5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Ferroviaria EU Bookmakers 18%
-14% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.87/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.16
-31% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +1%
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
385 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 76%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.6
23.2 Crosses 14.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.7
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Paranaense
1-1
AWAY Ferroviaria
2.03 xG 1.71
59% Ball Possession 41%
27 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 2
11 Corners 1
412 Passes 277
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
39 Box Touches 13
27 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Atletico Paranaense vs Ferroviaria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Paranaense and Ferroviaria couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Paranaense at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (58%) missed.

On the day, Atletico Paranaense had 59% of the ball to Ferroviaria's 41%, shots finished 27-7, expected goals 2.03 to 1.71.

What was the final score of Atletico Paranaense vs Ferroviaria?

Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Ferroviaria in the Brazil - Serie B on 23/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Paranaense vs Ferroviaria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Paranaense win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Atletico Paranaense 51%, draw 28%, Ferroviaria 21%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Atletico Paranaense), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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