Operario 3-2 Ponte Preta B — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 23 Jul 2026

📅23/07/2026 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.34
Draw
19%
4.34
Away
18%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.29
No
54%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.09
2-3 Goals
41%
1.72
4-5 Goals
21%
3.39
6+ Goals
8%
13.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.09 — our 30% vs market 25.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
20%
X/2
5%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
70%
-6.7pp
19%
Draw
20%
-0.6pp
18%
Away Win
10%
+7.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
40%
+6.4pp
54%
BTTS No
60%
-6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Operario EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Ponte Preta B EU Bookmakers 14%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
354 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Operario
3-2
AWAY Ponte Preta B
2.29 xG 0.96
20 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
276 Passes 141
21 Box Touches 9
24 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Operario vs Ponte Preta B
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Operario squeezed past Ponte Preta B 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Operario as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, shots finished 20-11, expected goals 2.29 to 0.96 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Operario's control.

What was the final score of Operario vs Ponte Preta B?

Operario 3-2 Ponte Preta B in the Brazil - Serie B on 23/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Operario vs Ponte Preta B?

Before kick-off our model rated a Operario win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Operario 63%, draw 19%, Ponte Preta B 18%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Operario) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Operario) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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