Sevilla 1-2 Villarreal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 23 Aug 2024

📅23/08/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.09
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
32%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.03
Over 2.5
55%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.61
No
43%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.92
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
3.16
6+ Goals
11%
10.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.97
1/2
7%
31.0
1/X
9%
12.7
X/1 EV+ ✗
23%
4.96
X/2
9%
6.67
X/X
7%
5.0
2/1
6%
24.0
2/2
15%
4.48
2/X
9%
12.95
Value flag · X/1 at 4.96 — our 23% vs market 15.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
44%
-0.4pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.2pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+1.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
45%
-0.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
55%
+0.1pp
57%
BTTS Yes
58%
-0.6pp
43%
BTTS No
42%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sevilla EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Villarreal EU Bookmakers 34%
-4% / -30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +3%
1.39/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.48
-14% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
399 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 80%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
27.8 Crosses 13.9
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sevilla
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Villarreal
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.04 xG 2.10
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
314 Passes 369
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 29
24 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
11.05.2024 Villarreal Villarreal 3-2 HT 1-2 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
03.12.2023 Sevilla Sevilla 1-1 HT 0-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
23.04.2023 Sevilla Sevilla 2-1 HT 1-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
18.09.2022 Villarreal Villarreal 1-1 HT 0-1 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
08.05.2022 Villarreal Villarreal 1-1 HT 0-0 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
04.12.2021 Sevilla Sevilla 1-0 HT 1-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sevilla
1-2
AWAY Villarreal
1.04 xG 0.87
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 2
443 Passes 265
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
19 Box Touches 20
24 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Sevilla vs Villarreal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Villarreal edged past Sevilla 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Sevilla at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Sevilla had 60% of the ball to Villarreal's 40%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 1.04 to 0.87.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sevilla had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Sevilla and 1.17 for Villarreal.

What was the final score of Sevilla vs Villarreal?

Sevilla 1-2 Villarreal in the Spain - Primera Liga on 23/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sevilla vs Villarreal?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sevilla win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Sevilla 43%, draw 25%, Villarreal 32%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sevilla) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sevilla) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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