Celta Vigo 3-1 Valencia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 23 Aug 2024

📅23/08/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.05
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
27%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.75
Over 2.5
48%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.99
2-3 Goals
44%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.9
6+ Goals
9%
17.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.93
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.15
X/1
22%
4.61
X/2
14%
6.9
X/X
10%
4.3
2/1
7%
27.0
2/2
7%
5.19
2/X EV+ ✗
11%
13.6
Value flag · 2/X at 13.6 — our 11% vs market 4.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
45%
+0.5pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.2pp
27%
Away Win
27%
-0.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
53%
-1.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
47%
+1.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.3pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Celta Vigo EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Valencia EU Bookmakers 31%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -3%
1.41/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.42
-3% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +4%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
321 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 80%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
20.1 Crosses 15.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Celta Vigo
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Valencia
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.06 xG 1.56
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
298 Passes 328
75% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
26.05.2024 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 2-2 HT 0-1 Valencia Valencia İS1
17.01.2024 Valencia Valencia 1-3 HT 1-2 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İSPK
25.11.2023 Valencia Valencia 0-0 HT 0-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
14.05.2023 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 1-2 HT 0-1 Valencia Valencia İS1
17.09.2022 Valencia Valencia 3-0 HT 1-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
21.05.2022 Valencia Valencia 2-0 HT 1-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Celta Vigo
3-1
AWAY Valencia
1.32 xG 0.93
49% Ball Possession 51%
7 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
420 Passes 417
87% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 22
11 Crosses 29
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Celta Vigo vs Valencia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celta Vigo beat Valencia 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Celta Vigo as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Celta Vigo had 49% of the ball to Valencia's 51%, shots finished 7-13, expected goals 1.32 to 0.93.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Valencia led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Celta Vigo and 1.67 for Valencia.

What was the final score of Celta Vigo vs Valencia?

Celta Vigo 3-1 Valencia in the Spain - Primera Liga on 23/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Celta Vigo vs Valencia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Celta Vigo win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Celta Vigo 45%, draw 28%, Valencia 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Celta Vigo), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Celta Vigo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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