Valencia 1-3 Celta Vigo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Copa del Rey, 17 Jan 2024

📅17/01/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.05
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
30%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.6
Over 2.5
47%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.96
No
50%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.49
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
4.71
6+ Goals
9%
26.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.99
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
6%
14.0
X/1
9%
4.37
X/2
12%
6.72
X/X
14%
3.9
2/1
8%
30.0
2/2
12%
5.46
2/X
10%
14.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
45%
-4.4pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.2pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+3.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
59%
-5.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
41%
+5.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.0pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valencia EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Celta Vigo EU Bookmakers 30%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +24% / +24%
1.08/3.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.60/1.11
-19% / -66% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +118% / +16%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
351 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 72%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
21.0 Crosses 6.0
4.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valencia
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Celta Vigo
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.27 xG 0.76
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
288 Passes 300
74% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
25.11.2023 Valencia Valencia 0-0 HT 0-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
14.05.2023 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 1-2 HT 0-1 Valencia Valencia İS1
17.09.2022 Valencia Valencia 3-0 HT 1-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
21.05.2022 Valencia Valencia 2-0 HT 1-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
05.12.2021 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 1-2 HT 1-1 Valencia Valencia İS1
20.02.2021 Valencia Valencia 2-0 HT 0-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valencia
1-3
AWAY Celta Vigo
2.09 xG 1.88
63% Ball Possession 37%
20 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
13 Corners 4
436 Passes 225
82% Pass Accuracy 72%
32 Box Touches 31
34 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Valencia vs Celta Vigo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celta Vigo got the better of Valencia 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match split (40% / 30% / 30%) promised a tight game; Celta Vigo found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Valencia had 63% of the ball to Celta Vigo's 37%, shots finished 20-15, expected goals 2.09 to 1.88.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Valencia had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Valencia and 0.33 for Celta Vigo.

What was the final score of Valencia vs Celta Vigo?

Valencia 1-3 Celta Vigo in the Spain - Copa del Rey on 17/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valencia vs Celta Vigo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valencia win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Valencia 40%, draw 30%, Celta Vigo 30%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Valencia) ✗ Under 2.5
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