Empoli 3-1 Padova Calcio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 23 Aug 2025

📅23/08/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.89
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
25%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.59
Over 2.5
55%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
2.06
No
44%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2.37
2-3 Goals
44%
1.73
4-5 Goals
22%
4.62
6+ Goals
11%
26.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.57
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.5
X/1
14%
4.15
X/2
6%
7.96
X/X
8%
3.98
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
29.0
2/2
11%
6.93
2/X
9%
15.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 29.0 — our 12% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
49%
+1.5pp
24%
Draw
28%
-3.8pp
25%
Away Win
23%
+2.3pp
45%
Under 2.5
59%
-13.8pp
55%
Over 2.5
41%
+13.8pp
56%
BTTS Yes
44%
+11.2pp
44%
BTTS No
56%
-11.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Empoli EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Padova Calcio EU Bookmakers 26%
+1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -23%
1.88/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/2.09
+19% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -35%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
348 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 76%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
24.4 Crosses 16.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Empoli
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Padova Calcio
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1 Total Shots 10
1 Shots on Target 2
22.02.2014 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 0-1 HT 0-1 Empoli Empoli nan
21.09.2013 Empoli Empoli 3-1 HT 0-1 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio nan
23.02.2013 Empoli Empoli 1-1 HT 1-1 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTB
25.09.2012 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 2-0 HT 1-0 Empoli Empoli İTB
18.02.2012 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 1-1 HT 1-1 Empoli Empoli İTB
01.10.2011 Empoli Empoli 2-4 HT 1-2 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Empoli
3-1
AWAY Padova Calcio
1.64 xG 0.61
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
297 Passes 265
78% Pass Accuracy 73%
30 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Empoli vs Padova Calcio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Empoli saw off Padova Calcio 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Empoli as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Empoli had 52% of the ball to Padova Calcio's 48%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 1.64 to 0.61.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Empoli and 1.50 for Padova Calcio.

What was the final score of Empoli vs Padova Calcio?

Empoli 3-1 Padova Calcio in the Italy - Serie B on 23/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Empoli vs Padova Calcio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Empoli win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Empoli 50%, draw 24%, Padova Calcio 25%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Empoli), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Empoli) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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