Monza 1-0 Mantova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 23 Aug 2025

📅23/08/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.76
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
24%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.04
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.54
6+ Goals
10%
14.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.04 — our 27% vs market 26.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.32
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
10%
14.0
X/1
12%
4.21
X/2
10%
8.64
X/X
12%
4.79
2/1
7%
24.1
2/2
7%
6.99
2/X
5%
15.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
53%
-3.8pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.3pp
24%
Away Win
22%
+2.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.1pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monza EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Mantova EU Bookmakers 25%
+7% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +0%
1.89/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.37
+12% / +68% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -29%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
340 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 79%
28.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
22.7 Crosses 18.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monza
1-0
AWAY Mantova
1.12 xG 0.20
44% Ball Possession 56%
16 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 1
296 Passes 410
82% Pass Accuracy 87%
28 Box Touches 13
21 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Monza vs Mantova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monza edged past Mantova 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Monza as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Monza had 44% of the ball to Mantova's 56%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 1.12 to 0.20.

What was the final score of Monza vs Mantova?

Monza 1-0 Mantova in the Italy - Serie B on 23/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monza vs Mantova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monza win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Monza 49%, draw 26%, Mantova 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monza), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Monza) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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