Lyon 3-0 Metz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 23 Aug 2025

Lyon
3-0 HT 2-0
Metz
📅23/08/2025 · 🕒22:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-0 ✓
France - Ligue 1 – 2025/2026

Lyon vs Metz Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
68%
1.43
Draw
19%
4.34
Away
13%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.33
Over 2.5
57%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.66
2-3 Goals
40%
1.89
4-5 Goals
24%
2.69
6+ Goals
12%
7.07
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.69
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
4%
16.45
X/1
21%
3.99
X/2
5%
13.35
X/X
9%
6.97
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
19.7
2/2
4%
10.4
2/X
6%
18.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.7 — our 13% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
66%
+2.8pp
18%
Draw
20%
-1.3pp
13%
Away Win
15%
-1.4pp
43%
Under 2.5
39%
+4.0pp
57%
Over 2.5
61%
-4.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.3pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lyon v Metz — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lyon EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Metz EU Bookmakers 18%
-6% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +16%
2.05/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.74
+0% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +9%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
438 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 76%
33.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.0
19.0 Crosses 15.6
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.2

Lyon vs Metz Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lyon
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Metz
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.82 xG 1.17
67% Ball Possession 34%
17 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
499 Passes 204
85% Pass Accuracy 72%
34 Box Touches 14
21 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.02.2024 Metz Metz 1-2 HT 1-1 Lyon Lyon FR1
05.11.2023 Lyon Lyon 1-1 HT 0-0 Metz Metz FR1
07.01.2023 Lyon Lyon 2-1 HT 0-0 Metz Metz FRK
08.05.2022 Metz Metz 3-2 HT 2-1 Lyon Lyon FR1
22.12.2021 Lyon Lyon 1-1 HT 0-0 Metz Metz FR1
17.01.2021 Lyon Lyon 0-1 HT 0-0 Metz Metz FR1

Lyon 3-0 Metz — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lyon
3-0
AWAY Metz
2.77 xG 0.56
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
500 Passes 442
92% Pass Accuracy 91%
23 Box Touches 17
10 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lyon vs Metz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lyon ran out comfortable winners over Metz 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Lyon as the likeliest winner at 68%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Lyon had 52% of the ball to Metz's 48%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 2.77 to 0.56.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Lyon and 1.33 for Metz.

What was the final score of Lyon vs Metz?

Lyon 3-0 Metz in the France - Ligue 1 on 23/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lyon vs Metz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lyon win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Lyon 68%, draw 18%, Metz 13%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lyon), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lyon) ✓ Over 2.5
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