Nice 3-1 Auxerre — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 23 Aug 2025

Nice
3-1 HT 2-1
Auxerre
📅23/08/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.75
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
22%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.8
Over 2.5
44%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.98
2-3 Goals
39%
1.73
4-5 Goals
19%
3.61
6+ Goals
9%
15.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.98 — our 33% vs market 26.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.27
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.15
X/1
18%
4.02
X/2
10%
8.57
X/X
12%
5.0
2/1
7%
23.65
2/2
9%
7.09
2/X
5%
16.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
54%
-0.1pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.3pp
22%
Away Win
22%
+0.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.2pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nice EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Auxerre EU Bookmakers 25%
-6% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -4%
1.62/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.73
-17% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +4%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
423 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 78%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
21.7 Crosses 14.2
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nice
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Auxerre
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.61 xG 0.82
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
458 Passes 324
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
25 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 2
14.03.2025 Nice Nice 1-1 HT 1-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR1
18.08.2024 Auxerre Auxerre 2-1 HT 1-1 Nice Nice FR1
06.01.2024 Nice Nice 0-0 HT 0-0 Auxerre Auxerre FRK
03.03.2023 Nice Nice 1-1 HT 1-1 Auxerre Auxerre FR1
16.10.2022 Auxerre Auxerre 1-1 HT 1-1 Nice Nice FR1
31.10.2018 Nice Nice 3-2 HT 2-0 Auxerre Auxerre FRLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nice
3-1
AWAY Auxerre
1.94 xG 1.51
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 4
417 Passes 309
87% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Nice vs Auxerre
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nice saw off Auxerre 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Nice as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Nice had 55% of the ball to Auxerre's 45%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 1.94 to 1.51.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Nice and 1.17 for Auxerre.

What was the final score of Nice vs Auxerre?

Nice 3-1 Auxerre in the France - Ligue 1 on 23/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nice vs Auxerre?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nice win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Nice 53%, draw 24%, Auxerre 22%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nice) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nice) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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