Troyes 1-0 Montpellier — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 23 Aug 2025

📅23/08/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
29%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.68
Over 2.5
46%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
2.62
2-3 Goals
41%
1.72
4-5 Goals
18%
4.09
6+ Goals
9%
20.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.62 — our 32% vs market 30.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.22
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.95
X/1
14%
4.76
X/2
8%
6.11
X/X
15%
4.27
2/1
8%
28.0
2/2
12%
4.7
2/X
8%
14.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
-0.2pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.2pp
29%
Away Win
31%
-2.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.6pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Troyes EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Montpellier EU Bookmakers 34%
+5% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +21%
1.26/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/0.54
-14% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +71% / +24%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
362 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 77%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.0
17.9 Crosses 15.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Troyes
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Montpellier
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.88 xG 1.09
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
322 Passes 397
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 3
19.02.2023 Troyes Troyes 0-1 HT 0-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
07.08.2022 Montpellier Montpellier 3-2 HT 2-2 Troyes Troyes FR1
19.01.2022 Montpellier Montpellier 0-1 HT 0-0 Troyes Troyes FR1
19.09.2021 Troyes Troyes 1-1 HT 1-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
12.05.2018 Montpellier Montpellier 1-1 HT 0-1 Troyes Troyes FR1
16.09.2017 Troyes Troyes 0-1 HT 0-1 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Troyes
1-0
AWAY Montpellier
1.48 xG 0.57
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 4
522 Passes 304
92% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 23
22 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Troyes vs Montpellier
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Troyes nicked a narrow win over Montpellier 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Troyes as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Troyes had 60% of the ball to Montpellier's 40%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 1.48 to 0.57.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Montpellier led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Troyes and 1.17 for Montpellier.

What was the final score of Troyes vs Montpellier?

Troyes 1-0 Montpellier in the France - Ligue 2 on 23/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Troyes vs Montpellier?

Before kick-off our model rated a Troyes win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Troyes 42%, draw 29%, Montpellier 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Troyes), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Troyes) ✓ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FR2 More France - Ligue 2
23 Aug 2025
00:00 Boulogne vs Saint-Etienne Analysis →
15:00 Guingamp vs Red Star FC 93 Analysis →