PSV Eindhoven 4-2 Groningen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 23 Aug 2025

📅23/08/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
81%
1.22
Draw
12%
6.26
Away
7%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under
35%
2.89
Over
65%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.88
No
47%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1
19%
6.12
2-3
33%
2.07
4-5
29%
2.43
6+
19%
5.01
Value flag · 0-1 at 6.12 — our 19% vs market 11.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
54%
1.33
1/2
2%
34.5
1/X
5%
24.1
X/1
20%
3.83
X/2
2%
24.1
X/X
3%
10.1
2/1
8%
20.45
2/2
2%
19.85
2/X
4%
28.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
PSV Eindhoven win — 81%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
81%
Home Win
78%
+3.0pp
12%
Draw
13%
-1.0pp
7%
Away Win
9%
-2.0pp
35%
Under 2.5
31%
+4.4pp
65%
Over 2.5
69%
-4.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+4.4pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSV Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Groningen EU Bookmakers 11%
+2% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -13%
2.88/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/2.11
+28% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -38% / -12%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
404 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 76%
44.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.8
25.2 Crosses 12.4
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSV Eindhoven
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Groningen
3.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.54 xG 0.74
64% Ball Possession 36%
21 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 3
474 Passes 241
84% Pass Accuracy 73%
35 Box Touches 15
23 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 1
05.04.2025 Groningen Groningen 1-3 HT 1-2 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
23.11.2024 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 5-0 HT 2-0 Groningen Groningen HOL
11.02.2023 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 6-0 HT 1-0 Groningen Groningen HOL
23.10.2022 Groningen Groningen 4-2 HT 3-1 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
16.01.2022 Groningen Groningen 0-1 HT 0-1 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
28.08.2021 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 5-2 HT 3-2 Groningen Groningen HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSV Eindhoven
4-2
AWAY Groningen
66% Ball Possession 34%
23 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
487 Passes 205
87% Pass Accuracy 74%
POST-MATCH PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSV Eindhoven saw off Groningen 4-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had PSV Eindhoven as the likeliest winner at 81%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (65%) came in.

On the day, PSV Eindhoven had 66% of the ball to Groningen's 34%, shots finished 23-17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSV Eindhoven had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 3.67 goals for PSV Eindhoven and 1.17 for Groningen.

What was the final score of PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen?

PSV Eindhoven 4-2 Groningen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 23/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen?

Before kick-off our model rated a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely single outcome at about 81%, with the full match-result split PSV Eindhoven 81%, draw 12%, Groningen 7%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSV Eindhoven), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (PSV Eindhoven) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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