Groningen 1-3 PSV Eindhoven — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 5 Apr 2025

Groningen
1-3 HT 1-2
PSV Eindhoven
📅05/04/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
5.4
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
50%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.18
Over 2.5
48%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.21
2-3 Goals
39%
1.87
4-5 Goals
22%
2.93
6+ Goals
11%
8.69
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.21 — our 28% vs market 18.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
10.8
1/2
8%
21.4
1/X
7%
18.9
X/1
8%
13.4
X/2 EV+ ✗
27%
4.06
X/X
12%
6.51
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
15%
1.78
2/X
6%
16.45
Value flag · X/2 at 4.06 — our 27% vs market 19.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
15%
+9.2pp
25%
Draw
21%
+4.3pp
50%
Away Win
64%
-13.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
42%
+9.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
58%
-9.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.2pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Groningen v PSV Eindhoven — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Groningen EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY PSV Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 69%
+16% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -7%
0.84/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.27/1.02
-14% / +61% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -9%
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
249 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 426 · 81%
15.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 35.2
11.8 Crosses 19.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.6

Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Groningen
1W-0D-5L
AWAY PSV Eindhoven
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.33
0.73 xG 2.85
36% Ball Possession 64%
9 Total Shots 21
2 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 10
232 Passes 461
71% Pass Accuracy 83%
14 Box Touches 35
14 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
23.11.2024 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 5-0 HT 2-0 Groningen Groningen HOL
11.02.2023 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 6-0 HT 1-0 Groningen Groningen HOL
23.10.2022 Groningen Groningen 4-2 HT 3-1 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
16.01.2022 Groningen Groningen 0-1 HT 0-1 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
28.08.2021 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 5-2 HT 3-2 Groningen Groningen HOL
24.04.2021 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 1-0 HT 0-0 Groningen Groningen HOL

Groningen 1-3 PSV Eindhoven — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Groningen
1-3
AWAY PSV Eindhoven
0.76 xG 1.46
38% Ball Possession 62%
14 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
251 Passes 474
74% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 29
13 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSV Eindhoven saw off Groningen 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had PSV Eindhoven as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Groningen had 38% of the ball to PSV Eindhoven's 62%, shots finished 14-15, expected goals 0.76 to 1.46.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSV Eindhoven led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Groningen and 3.33 for PSV Eindhoven.

What was the final score of Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven?

Groningen 1-3 PSV Eindhoven in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven?

Before kick-off our model rated an PSV Eindhoven win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Groningen 25%, draw 25%, PSV Eindhoven 50%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSV Eindhoven), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (PSV Eindhoven) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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