Twente 1-1 Fortuna Sittard — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 5 Apr 2025

Twente
1-1 HT 1-0
Fortuna Sittard
📅05/04/2025 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

Twente vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.42
Draw
26%
4.34
Away
22%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.15
Over 2.5
56%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.88
No
47%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.07
2-3 Goals
39%
1.86
4-5 Goals
24%
2.98
6+ Goals
15%
9.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.71
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
9%
17.7
X/1
16%
3.93
X/2
9%
14.6
X/X
11%
6.65
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
21.95
2/2
7%
12.3
2/X
6%
20.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.95 — our 11% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
66%
-14.3pp
26%
Draw
20%
+6.5pp
22%
Away Win
14%
+7.8pp
44%
Under 2.5
43%
+0.9pp
56%
Over 2.5
57%
-0.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+4.3pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Twente v Fortuna Sittard — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Twente EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortuna Sittard EU Bookmakers 17%
+0% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +1%
2.03/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.82
+4% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -9%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
409 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 72%
34.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
24.3 Crosses 14.6
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.3

Twente vs Fortuna Sittard Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Twente
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Fortuna Sittard
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.86 xG 0.63
65% Ball Possession 35%
18 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 1
445 Passes 200
82% Pass Accuracy 67%
33 Box Touches 13
23 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
23.11.2024 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 1-2 HT 0-1 Twente Twente HOL
06.04.2024 Twente Twente 2-0 HT 0-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
08.10.2023 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 0-3 HT 0-1 Twente Twente HOL
11.03.2023 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 0-3 HT 0-0 Twente Twente HOL
14.08.2022 Twente Twente 3-0 HT 2-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
07.05.2022 Twente Twente 1-2 HT 1-2 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL

Twente 1-1 Fortuna Sittard — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Twente
1-1
AWAY Fortuna Sittard
1.90 xG 0.85
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 3
298 Passes 276
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
32 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Twente vs Fortuna Sittard
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Twente and Fortuna Sittard shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Twente at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Twente had 52% of the ball to Fortuna Sittard's 48%, shots finished 12-6, expected goals 1.90 to 0.85.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Twente had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Twente and 0.50 for Fortuna Sittard.

What was the final score of Twente vs Fortuna Sittard?

Twente 1-1 Fortuna Sittard in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Twente vs Fortuna Sittard?

Before kick-off our model rated a Twente win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Twente 52%, draw 26%, Fortuna Sittard 22%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Twente), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Twente) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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