Almere City 2-2 PEC Zwolle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.25
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
37%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.78
Over 2.5
54%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.02
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
23%
3.72
6+ Goals
12%
15.85
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.72 — our 23% vs market 21.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.41
1/2
5%
32.5
1/X
6%
12.9
X/1
15%
5.32
X/2
11%
6.35
X/X
13%
4.42
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
28.0
2/2
21%
4.5
2/X
6%
13.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.0 — our 7% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
41%
-2.1pp
24%
Draw
28%
-3.6pp
37%
Away Win
31%
+5.7pp
46%
Under 2.5
52%
-6.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
48%
+6.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.0pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
-0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Almere City EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY PEC Zwolle EU Bookmakers 34%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +11%
1.35/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.72
-25% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +43% / +1%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
323 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 77%
28.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
19.6 Crosses 16.3
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Almere City
1W-1D-4L
AWAY PEC Zwolle
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.62 xG 1.08
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
216 Passes 380
64% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
29.09.2024 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 1-0 HT 0-0 Almere City Almere City HOL
17.02.2024 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 0-1 HT 0-0 Almere City Almere City HOL
02.09.2023 Almere City Almere City 1-2 HT 0-1 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
21.04.2023 Almere City Almere City 1-1 HT 0-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL2
06.01.2023 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 3-2 HT 1-1 Almere City Almere City HOL2
18.07.2017 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 3-0 HT 3-0 Almere City Almere City HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Almere City
2-2
AWAY PEC Zwolle
3.21 xG 1.19
51% Ball Possession 49%
24 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
283 Passes 301
74% Pass Accuracy 77%
46 Box Touches 7
32 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Almere City vs PEC Zwolle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almere City and PEC Zwolle shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match split (39% / 24% / 37%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Almere City had 51% of the ball to PEC Zwolle's 49%, shots finished 24-10, expected goals 3.21 to 1.19.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PEC Zwolle led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Almere City and 1.67 for PEC Zwolle.

What was the final score of Almere City vs PEC Zwolle?

Almere City 2-2 PEC Zwolle in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Almere City vs PEC Zwolle?

Before kick-off our model rated a Almere City win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Almere City 39%, draw 24%, PEC Zwolle 37%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Almere City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Almere City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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