PEC Zwolle 0-1 Almere City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.12
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.86
Over 2.5
55%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.7
No
41%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.29
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
27%
3.52
6+ Goals
10%
13.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.03
1/2
5%
33.0
1/X
8%
12.9
X/1
15%
4.79
X/2
15%
6.42
X/X
6%
4.54
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
26.0
2/2
11%
4.58
2/X
9%
13.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.0 — our 8% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
43%
+2.9pp
23%
Draw
27%
-4.5pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+1.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
50%
-5.5pp
55%
Over 2.5
50%
+5.5pp
59%
BTTS Yes
55%
+4.5pp
41%
BTTS No
45%
-4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PEC Zwolle EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Almere City EU Bookmakers 33%
-8% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
1.43/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.95/0.83
-26% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% /
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
298 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 71%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.0
22.6 Crosses 23.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PEC Zwolle
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Almere City
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.01 xG 0.47
57% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
340 Passes 201
74% Pass Accuracy 60%
24 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
02.09.2023 Almere City Almere City 1-2 HT 0-1 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
21.04.2023 Almere City Almere City 1-1 HT 0-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL2
06.01.2023 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 3-2 HT 1-1 Almere City Almere City HOL2
18.07.2017 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 3-0 HT 3-0 Almere City Almere City HAZ
20.01.2012 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 3-2 HT 1-2 Almere City Almere City HOL2
14.10.2011 Almere City Almere City 0-3 HT 0-2 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PEC Zwolle
0-1
AWAY Almere City
1.16 xG 0.14
63% Ball Possession 37%
17 Total Shots 5
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
416 Passes 210
77% Pass Accuracy 65%
28 Box Touches 12
23 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH PEC Zwolle vs Almere City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almere City squeezed past PEC Zwolle 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was PEC Zwolle at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, PEC Zwolle had 63% of the ball to Almere City's 37%, shots finished 17-5, expected goals 1.16 to 0.14 — on chances, PEC Zwolle could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, PEC Zwolle had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.00 for Almere City.

What was the final score of PEC Zwolle vs Almere City?

PEC Zwolle 0-1 Almere City in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PEC Zwolle vs Almere City?

Before kick-off our model rated a PEC Zwolle win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split PEC Zwolle 46%, draw 23%, Almere City 31%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (PEC Zwolle) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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