Sparta Rotterdam 4-2 Excelsior — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.9
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
33%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.91
Over 2.5
51%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.41
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
3.42
6+ Goals
11%
13.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.41 — our 25% vs market 23.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.56
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.4
X/1
14%
4.33
X/2
15%
7.56
X/X
11%
4.79
2/1
9%
23.75
2/2
12%
5.59
2/X
5%
13.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
49%
-5.2pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.7pp
33%
Away Win
26%
+7.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.9pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sparta Rotterdam EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Excelsior EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -3%
1.52/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.98
-8% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -22%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
346 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 77%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
21.5 Crosses 14.7
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sparta Rotterdam
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Excelsior
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.54 xG 1.19
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
336 Passes 281
76% Pass Accuracy 73%
25 Box Touches 15
31 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
01.10.2023 Excelsior Excelsior 2-1 HT 0-0 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
05.03.2023 Excelsior Excelsior 1-4 HT 1-1 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
14.01.2023 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 1-0 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
21.01.2018 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 2-3 HT 2-2 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
21.10.2017 Excelsior Excelsior 1-1 HT 0-0 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
07.04.2017 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 2-3 HT 1-2 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sparta Rotterdam
4-2
AWAY Excelsior
2.61 xG 1.35
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
9 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
358 Passes 361
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sparta Rotterdam saw off Excelsior 4-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sparta Rotterdam as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Sparta Rotterdam had 49% of the ball to Excelsior's 51%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 2.61 to 1.35.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Excelsior led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.67 for Excelsior.

What was the final score of Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior?

Sparta Rotterdam 4-2 Excelsior in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sparta Rotterdam win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Sparta Rotterdam 43%, draw 24%, Excelsior 33%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sparta Rotterdam), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sparta Rotterdam) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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