Fortuna Sittard 1-2 AZ Alkmaar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 17 Feb 2024

Fortuna Sittard
1-2 HT 1-0
AZ Alkmaar
📅17/02/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✓
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
4.04
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
45%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.62
Over 2.5
52%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
2.06
No
47%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.53
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals
24%
4.56
6+ Goals
9%
24.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
7.59
1/2
5%
28.0
1/X
7%
16.05
X/1
5%
8.81
X/2
17%
3.81
X/X
9%
4.13
2/1
8%
34.0
2/2
23%
2.36
2/X EV+ ✗
12%
15.15
Value flag · 2/X at 15.15 — our 12% vs market 3.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
21%
+6.4pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.5pp
45%
Away Win
52%
-7.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
58%
-9.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
42%
+9.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
44%
+8.7pp
47%
BTTS No
56%
-8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fortuna Sittard v AZ Alkmaar — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortuna Sittard EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 56%
+0% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +18%
1.08/1.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/1.11
-3% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +11%
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 8
260 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 436 · 82%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.9
17.3 Crosses 17.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.4

Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortuna Sittard
0W-0D-6L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.90 xG 1.71
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
357 Passes 469
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 31
16 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.10.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 4-0 HT 1-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
16.04.2023 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 0-3 HT 0-2 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
22.01.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 3-1 HT 2-1 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
16.01.2022 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 1-2 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
02.12.2021 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-1 HT 1-1 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
08.05.2021 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-0 HT 1-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL

Fortuna Sittard 1-2 AZ Alkmaar — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortuna Sittard
1-2
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
1.72 xG 1.80
29% Ball Possession 71%
14 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 10
193 Passes 595
68% Pass Accuracy 88%
23 Box Touches 36
10 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar nicked a narrow win over Fortuna Sittard 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had AZ Alkmaar as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Fortuna Sittard had 29% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar's 71%, shots finished 14-19, expected goals 1.72 to 1.80.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Fortuna Sittard and 2.50 for AZ Alkmaar.

What was the final score of Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar?

Fortuna Sittard 1-2 AZ Alkmaar in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar?

Before kick-off our model rated an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Fortuna Sittard 28%, draw 27%, AZ Alkmaar 45%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AZ Alkmaar), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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