Omiya Ardija 1-0 Roasso Kumamoto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 23 Aug 2025

📅23/08/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.92
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
32%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.0
Over 2.5
54%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.66
No
43%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.52
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
24%
3.05
6+ Goals
11%
10.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
48%
-4.5pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.6pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+5.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
46%
-0.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
54%
+0.1pp
57%
BTTS Yes
56%
+1.2pp
43%
BTTS No
44%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Omiya Ardija EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Roasso Kumamoto EU Bookmakers 30%
-2% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -14%
1.36/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.31
-11% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +0%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
348 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
17.4 Crosses 19.6
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Omiya Ardija
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Roasso Kumamoto
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 5
216 Passes 483
76% Pass Accuracy 86%
9 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 0
02.03.2025 Roasso Kumamoto Roasso Kumamoto 0-4 HT 0-0 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija JAP2
16.09.2023 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija 0-3 HT 0-0 Roasso Kumamoto Roasso Kumamoto JAP2
05.03.2023 Roasso Kumamoto Roasso Kumamoto 3-0 HT 2-0 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija JAP2
04.09.2022 Roasso Kumamoto Roasso Kumamoto 1-0 HT 0-0 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija JAP2
05.03.2022 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija 1-2 HT 1-0 Roasso Kumamoto Roasso Kumamoto JAP2
10.10.2015 Roasso Kumamoto Roasso Kumamoto 3-0 HT 1-0 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Omiya Ardija
1-0
AWAY Roasso Kumamoto
49% Ball Possession 51%
19 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 2
304 Passes 319
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Omiya Ardija vs Roasso Kumamoto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Omiya Ardija squeezed past Roasso Kumamoto 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Omiya Ardija as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Omiya Ardija had 49% of the ball to Roasso Kumamoto's 51%, shots finished 19-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Roasso Kumamoto led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Omiya Ardija and 2.00 for Roasso Kumamoto.

What was the final score of Omiya Ardija vs Roasso Kumamoto?

Omiya Ardija 1-0 Roasso Kumamoto in the Japan - J2 League on 23/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Omiya Ardija vs Roasso Kumamoto?

Before kick-off our model rated a Omiya Ardija win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Omiya Ardija 44%, draw 25%, Roasso Kumamoto 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Omiya Ardija) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Omiya Ardija) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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