Llaneros 2-1 Deportivo Pasto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 23 Aug 2025

📅23/08/2025 · 🕒04:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.86
Draw
32%
3.04
Away
28%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
64%
Over
36%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.44
No
54%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1
39%
2-3
39%
4-5
15%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
9%
X/2
13%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 64%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
50%
-10.3pp
32%
Draw
29%
+2.9pp
28%
Away Win
21%
+7.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
37%
+9.0pp
54%
BTTS No
63%
-9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Llaneros EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Pasto EU Bookmakers 24%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +9%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +12%
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
316 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 237 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.1
Crosses 12.7
Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Llaneros
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Deportivo Pasto
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.29 xG 1.16
59% Ball Possession 41%
9 Total Shots 9
0 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 7
373 Passes 260
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
9 Box Touches 12
33 Crosses 19
0 Yellow Cards 2
03.06.2025 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 3-0 HT 2-0 Llaneros Llaneros KOLK
09.03.2025 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 1-0 HT 1-0 Llaneros Llaneros KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Llaneros
2-1
AWAY Deportivo Pasto
0.99 xG 0.41
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 1
1 Corners 5
205 Passes 265
75% Pass Accuracy 79%
13 Box Touches 5
15 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Llaneros vs Deportivo Pasto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Llaneros squeezed past Deportivo Pasto 2-1.

Our pre-match split (39% / 32% / 28%) promised a tight game; Llaneros found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Llaneros had 44% of the ball to Deportivo Pasto's 56%, shots finished 8-8, expected goals 0.99 to 0.41.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Deportivo Pasto led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Llaneros and 2.00 for Deportivo Pasto.

What was the final score of Llaneros vs Deportivo Pasto?

Llaneros 2-1 Deportivo Pasto in the Colombia - Primera on 23/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Llaneros vs Deportivo Pasto?

Before kick-off our model rated a Llaneros win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Llaneros 39%, draw 32%, Deportivo Pasto 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Llaneros) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Llaneros) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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