Independiente Medellin 3-1 La Equidad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 23 Aug 2025

📅23/08/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
63%
1.42
Draw
21%
4.08
Away
16%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under
54%
1.67
Over
46%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.51
No
55%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2-3
40%
4-5
19%
6+
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
4%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Independiente Medellin win — 63%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
67%
-3.9pp
21%
Draw
22%
-0.8pp
16%
Away Win
12%
+4.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
36%
+9.7pp
55%
BTTS No
64%
-9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY La Equidad EU Bookmakers 14%
+3% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -3%
1.33/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/1.26
-11% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -10%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
365 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 238 · 73%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.5
18.7 Crosses 12.1
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Medellin
1W-4D-1L
AWAY La Equidad
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.40 xG 1.01
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
332 Passes 218
80% Pass Accuracy 72%
17 Box Touches 14
12 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
09.03.2025 La Equidad La Equidad 0-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
06.10.2024 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 0-0 HT 0-0 La Equidad La Equidad KOL
23.03.2024 La Equidad La Equidad 1-2 HT 1-2 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
16.07.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-2 HT 1-1 La Equidad La Equidad KOL
16.02.2023 La Equidad La Equidad 2-1 HT 2-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
06.08.2022 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-1 HT 1-0 La Equidad La Equidad KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Medellin
3-1
AWAY La Equidad
1.19 xG 1.03
69% Ball Possession 31%
19 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 1
585 Passes 227
91% Pass Accuracy 79%
26 Box Touches 7
18 Crosses 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Independiente Medellin vs La Equidad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Medellin saw off La Equidad 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Independiente Medellin as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Independiente Medellin had 69% of the ball to La Equidad's 31%, shots finished 19-4, expected goals 1.19 to 1.03.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Independiente Medellin and 1.00 for La Equidad.

What was the final score of Independiente Medellin vs La Equidad?

Independiente Medellin 3-1 La Equidad in the Colombia - Primera on 23/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Medellin vs La Equidad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Medellin win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Independiente Medellin 63%, draw 21%, La Equidad 16%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Medellin) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Medellin) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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