Progress / AFA Olaine 3-3 Augsdaugava — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - 1st Division, 23 Aug 2025

📅23/08/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
3.69
Draw
19%
3.8
Away
58%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
Over 2.5
49%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.53
No
47%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
48%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
7%
X/2
15%
X/X
6%
2/1
3%
2/2
37%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
24%
-0.7pp
19%
Draw
23%
-4.3pp
58%
Away Win
53%
+5.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
61%
-8.6pp
47%
BTTS No
39%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Progress / AFA Olaine EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Augsdaugava EU Bookmakers 57%
-19% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-26% / -42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
300 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 475 · 86%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Progress / AFA Olaine
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Augsdaugava
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
08.06.2025 Augsdaugava 4-1 HT 2-1 Progress / AFA Olaine Progress / AFA Olaine LET1
POST-MATCH Progress / AFA Olaine vs Augsdaugava
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Progress / AFA Olaine and Augsdaugava couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 0-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Augsdaugava carried 58% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

What was the final score of Progress / AFA Olaine vs Augsdaugava?

Progress / AFA Olaine 3-3 Augsdaugava in the Latvia - 1st Division on 23/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Progress / AFA Olaine vs Augsdaugava?

Before kick-off our model rated an Augsdaugava win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Progress / AFA Olaine 23%, draw 19%, Augsdaugava 58%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Augsdaugava), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Augsdaugava) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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