Marupe 0-3 Smiltene — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - 1st Division, 23 Aug 2025

Marupe
0-3 HT 0-1
Smiltene
📅23/08/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Latvia - 1st Division – 2025

Marupe vs Smiltene Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.8
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
21%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.18
Over 2.5
60%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.61
No
51%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
4%
X/X
9%
2/1
13%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
51%
+6.7pp
21%
Draw
23%
-2.1pp
21%
Away Win
25%
-4.5pp
40%
Under 2.5
42%
-1.7pp
60%
Over 2.5
58%
+1.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.5pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Marupe v Smiltene — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marupe EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Smiltene EU Bookmakers 29%
+36% / +36% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
1.93/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.67/1.75
-18% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +76% / +20%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
318 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 81%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Marupe vs Smiltene Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Marupe
2W-2D-0L
AWAY Smiltene
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
The Meetings
19.04.2025 Smiltene Smiltene 1-2 Marupe Marupe LET1
06.10.2024 Marupe Marupe 0-0 Smiltene Smiltene LET1
15.06.2024 Smiltene Smiltene 0-1 HT 0-0 Marupe Marupe LET1
11.06.2022 Marupe Marupe 3-3 HT 1-2 Smiltene Smiltene LETK
POST-MATCH Marupe vs Smiltene
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Smiltene ran out comfortable winners over Marupe 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

This one beat our numbers. Marupe carried 58% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Marupe had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Marupe and 1.00 for Smiltene.

What was the final score of Marupe vs Smiltene?

Marupe 0-3 Smiltene in the Latvia - 1st Division on 23/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Marupe vs Smiltene?

Before kick-off our model rated a Marupe win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Marupe 58%, draw 21%, Smiltene 21%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Marupe) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Marupe) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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